Goldman Sachs sees volatility fueling a stronger 2026 M&A cycle

Goldman Sachs is telling dealmakers to stop waiting for calm. In its 2H 2026 M&A outlook, “Embracing the Volatility Paradox,” the bank says swings in rates, policy, geopolitics, and technology can push companies to buy, sell, split, or partner while rivals hesitate.

Volatility as the trigger, not the brake

Volatility changes the boardroom math. When rates move, tariffs rise, or AI resets competitive advantage, executives rethink portfolio composition, scale, capital structure, and strategic positioning. In an unsettled market, that pushes companies toward acquisitions, divestitures, spinoffs, joint ventures, and cross-border restructurings rather than signaling that M&A has stalled.

In Goldman Sachs’ 2026 M&A outlook letter, Stephan Feldgoise wrote that across nearly three decades of advising clients, the constant has been leaders’ urge to build, grow, and pivot through shocks. A Nov. 20, 2025 Goldman Sachs Exchanges transcript with Allison Nathan made the same case: 2025 brought a surge in dealmaking even as geopolitical uncertainty, higher tariffs, and slowing growth hung over the market.

The 2025 surge set the floor for 2026

In Goldman’s Feb. 10, 2026 M&A commentary, the bank said the fundamental drivers were aligned heading into 2026. Its Global Banking & Markets team sees global M&A volume surging in 2026, signaling that the bank is not treating the 2025 rebound as a one-off.

Morgan Stanley put 2025 M&A volumes at about $4 trillion, up about 40% from 2024, helped by the highest average deal size in 25 years. McKinsey put global M&A activity up 43% in 2025. Goldman’s transcript credited private equity, corporate activity, open financing markets, and abundant capital with helping drive the year, and said AI had a massive impact on the M&A market.

What bankers should do differently now

For Goldman bankers, the operational shift is simple: stop pitching calm and start pitching readiness. If volatility is part of the thesis, then valuation work has to show more than one path, financing work has to test whether markets are still open, and board materials have to explain why moving now beats waiting for a cleaner macro print.

• Build valuation cases around multiple rate and growth scenarios, not a single mid-cycle multiple.
• Pressure-test financing early, especially where open markets and abundant capital helped deals get done in 2025.
• Frame board conversations around portfolio reshaping, capital structure, and strategic positioning, not just headline premium.

The pressure is highest in technology, industrials, healthcare, energy, financial institutions, and consumer businesses, where transformation pressure is already high. Goldman frames the market around globalization, technology, and ambition, as AI changes the competitive map and cross-border restructurings across the United States, Europe, and Asia become more attractive when domestic growth looks uncertain.

What it means inside Goldman

Clients need help reading a messy market, which makes the advisory franchise more valuable. Analysts and associates who can connect sector trends with financing terms and regulatory risk will have a better shot at making their pitch books useful, while VPs are the ones expected to translate that analysis into a board-ready story about timing and structure. For managing directors, the message is more direct: if volatility is the reason a client acts, the banker still has to show why Goldman can execute while others hesitate.

A stronger M&A cycle also changes the work rhythm. More live processes mean more staffing pressure, more late-night board prep, and more pressure to keep coverage teams aligned with execution teams across pitches, diligence, and financing. In that business, bonus pools and promotion tracks are tied to both revenue and client perception.