Cotality says housing market is flat nationally, but varies by region

A flat national housing headline hides a very uneven map for Home Depot stores, where the same aisle can feel different from one market to the next. Cotality said the U.S. housing market was in a holding pattern this spring, with year-over-year home price growth at 0.4% and the three-month index up 0.8% since the start of the year.

The bigger story for associates is where the weakness and strength are landing. Cotality said eleven states posted negative annual home-price growth, with Florida still the weakest annual market and Cape Coral, St. Petersburg, North Port and Lakeland among the metros under pressure. At the same time, the Northeast and parts of the Midwest were still showing stronger gains, while some West Coast markets were turning firmer again.

That split matters on the sales floor because housing demand drives different kinds of projects. In softer markets, customers are more likely to lean into repair, replacement and maintenance. In stronger or equity-rich markets, shoppers may be more willing to tackle bigger remodels or step up to premium products. Cotality Chief Economist Dr. Selma Hepp said markets with substantial home equity and stock market gains are more insulated from mortgage-rate volatility, while rate-sensitive markets are seeing prices stay relatively flat.

The local variation was clear in the metro data. Cotality said the New York City metro area fell 2.3% over the three months through April, Buffalo was down 2.1%, Washington, D.C. slipped 1.3%, and Fresno, Nassau and Phoenix also declined. San Francisco posted the strongest three-month home-price change among the top 100 CBSAs at 8.1%, and Oakland rose 3%. For Home Depot associates, that means a contractor-heavy district in one city may be chasing different projects than a suburban store in a softer market just a few hours away.

Mortgage rates are still shaping that behavior. Freddie Mac said the 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.48% for the week of June 4, down only slightly from 6.53% the prior week. Cotality said the recent surge in rates disrupted the spring buying season and reversed some of the affordability gains that lower rates created in 2025, keeping many would-be movers on the sidelines.

Home Depot has already been talking to investors in those terms. On May 19, the company said first-quarter fiscal 2026 sales reached $41.8 billion, U.S. comparable sales rose 0.4%, and management saw "greater consumer uncertainty and housing affordability pressure" during the quarter. The company reaffirmed fiscal 2026 guidance and, in December 2025, said it was modeling the home improvement market in a range from -1% to +1%, a forecast that fits a country where national housing looks flat but store-by-store demand does not.