Home Depot faces more repair-focused demand as housing cools in 2026

Shoppers are already making smaller, more selective bets on home projects, and that could leave Home Depot with a floor full of repair questions instead of remodel dreams. In the latest housing data, existing-home sales rose 3.2% year over year and month over month in May 2026 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.17 million, while inventory stood at 1.55 million units, or 4.5 months’ supply. The median existing-home price hit $429,300, up 1.3% from a year earlier, even as affordability improved, with the Housing Affordability Index rising to 105.6 from 97.5.

That matters on the store floor because a market with tighter budgets and slower turnover usually changes the first question an associate hears. Instead of walking in for a full kitchen or bath overhaul, customers are more likely to arrive with a broken part, a leak, a worn-out fixture or a room that needs a lower-cost refresh. The early demand winners tend to be the repair and maintenance aisles, especially plumbing repair, electrical, hardware, paint touch-up and weatherization, along with the consumables and small-ticket items that solve one problem at a time.

Home Depot’s own numbers suggest the company can still grow without a broad housing boom. In its first quarter of fiscal 2026, sales reached $41.8 billion, up 4.8% from a year earlier, with comparable sales up 0.6% overall and 0.4% in the U.S. Ted Decker said underlying demand was “relatively similar” to fiscal 2025 even with greater consumer uncertainty and housing affordability pressure, and the company reaffirmed fiscal 2026 guidance for sales growth of about 2.5% to 4.5% and comparable sales growth of flat to 2.0%.

For associates, the practical read-through is less about broad traffic and more about what kind of traffic shows up first. In a softer market, the people who can quickly triage a job, match the right part, and explain the difference between a temporary fix and a longer-lasting repair will carry more weight. Department leads will also need to watch where contractor bursts still appear, because project-heavy weekends and weather swings can create spikes even when housing is cautious.

That is where the company’s Pro strategy becomes more than a slogan. Home Depot’s fiscal 2025 annual report said the retailer is focused on driving the core and culture, delivering a frictionless interconnected experience and winning with the Pro, while also emphasizing on-shelf availability and associate knowledge. The company said fiscal 2025 sales were $164.7 billion, and it plans to finish its roughly 80-store expansion plan in 2027 before building 15 to 20 stores a year for the foreseeable future.

If housing demand softens in the second half of 2026, the shift on the floor is likely to be gradual, not dramatic. If it holds up, the mix should still lean toward repairs, refreshes and value-based upgrades rather than big discretionary remodels, with the strongest operators turning specific problems into fast, accurate sales.