Housing affordability keeps Home Depot shoppers price sensitive, patient

Customers are staying put, and shopping differently

The surprising part of today’s housing market is not that it has slowed, but that it still feeds a steady stream of work inside the store. Home Depot said demand looked broadly similar to fiscal 2025 despite greater consumer uncertainty and housing affordability pressure, and first-quarter fiscal 2026 sales still reached $41.8 billion, up 4.8% year over year, with comparable sales up 0.6% overall and 0.4% in the U.S. That is the customer reality associates feel on the floor: people are buying, but they are buying with more discipline.

For store teams, that means the sale is less likely to be a large, aspirational remodel and more likely to be a fix-it-now trip. Customers who cannot easily move are more likely to stay in their current homes, patch what is worn out, and extend the life of what they already own. They are patient, but they are also price sensitive, which changes the conversation at the Pro desk, in plumbing, in appliances, and anywhere a shopper is comparing good, better, and best with a calculator in hand.

Why affordability is shrinking the move-in market

The housing numbers explain why the store mix is tilting this way. The National Association of Home Builders said that in the first quarter of 2026, a family earning the median income of $106,800 needed 32% of that income just to cover the mortgage payment on a median-priced new home. For families earning 50% of median income, the same home would have taken 65% of earnings. That is not a market built for easy mobility, and it helps explain why the number of first-time buyers has been stuck at 21% of the market, with the typical first-time buyer age now 40.

The broader backdrop is even tighter than the mortgage math alone suggests. NAHB said home prices have risen 53% since 2019, while median household income has risen only 24%. It also estimates a nationwide shortage of roughly 1.2 million housing units, which keeps affordability under pressure. The National Association of REALTORS® reported the same 21% first-time-buyer share and a median first-time-buyer age of 40, reinforcing the idea that fewer customers are entering the market with a long move-in list and more are staying in place and remodeling in smaller, more selective ways.

What associates are hearing on the floor

That shift shows up in the questions customers ask. Instead of opening with a full-room transformation, they are more likely to ask how to stop a leak, make a room usable again, replace a failing appliance, or stretch another year out of a tired system. They want to know which repair is worth doing now, where they can downgrade without creating a bigger problem later, and how to phase a project around a tighter budget.

This is where product knowledge matters. When a customer cannot afford a full remodel, the value is in helping them choose the right fix, not just the flashiest finish. A smart recommendation in this market often means helping someone preserve a home rather than transform it, whether that is replacing a worn component, improving efficiency, or choosing a cheaper path that still gets the job done. The best associates in this environment are translating technical know-how into practical, affordable next steps.

The remodel market is not booming, but it is not disappearing

The renovation data backs up what stores are seeing. Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies projected in October 2025 that annual spending on improvements and maintenance to owner-occupied homes would reach about $524 billion in early 2026. In a later January 2026 update, the center said remodeling spending growth would slow from 2.1% in mid-2026 to 1.6% by year-end, with annual spending around $518 billion. That is not a runaway remodel market, but it is a durable one.

That matters because weak affordability does not kill demand, it redirects it. Fewer customers are buying a house and then immediately loading up on major projects. More are staying in place and spending on upkeep, maintenance, and targeted upgrades that fit a smaller budget. For Home Depot, that means a steady stream of customers still need help with replacement items, repair materials, and cost-conscious solutions that keep a home functional.

The Federal Reserve’s May 2026 household well-being report adds another layer. It said housing costs and availability remained a challenge for many adults, especially low-income households, and it also noted that homeowners were feeling pressure from rising insurance costs. Some were going without coverage or carrying less coverage than they wanted. That makes the conversation on the store floor even more practical, because customers are not just managing repair costs, they are trying to protect a budget that is already strained.

What this means for managers and departments

For store managers, this is a traffic and basket-mix story, not an abstract macro headline. Weak affordability affects how often customers come in, what they ask for, and which departments see the most action. It favors departments tied to maintenance and repair, including plumbing, electrical, paint, hardware, weatherization, and replacement appliances, while keeping a lid on the kind of broad, move-in spending that often follows a new purchase.

Home Depot’s own guidance suggests management still sees enough demand to keep leaning into the market. The company reaffirmed full-year fiscal 2026 expectations for total sales growth of about 2.5% to 4.5% and roughly 15 new stores. That is a sign that leadership is planning for a market that is selective, not dead. The winning stores will be the ones that make projects simpler, clearer, and easier to complete, especially for shoppers who need help choosing a repair they can afford today.

The real lesson for associates is straightforward: affordability is not just a housing story, it is a Home Depot story. When families cannot afford to move, they keep buying the parts, tools, and materials that preserve the home they already have, and that keeps the repair-and-maintenance aisle at the center of near-term demand.