Restaurant summer hiring forecast tops 450,000 as demand stays strong

Restaurants are set to add 450,000 seasonal jobs this summer, even as operators keep one eye on a cautious economy and another on summer demand. The National Restaurant Association’s annual Eating and Drinking Place Summer Employment Forecast puts the increase below last year’s 469,000 and marks the third straight year the industry has been projected to stay under 500,000 summer hires.

The forecast is built from Bureau of Labor Statistics data and measures average employment across June, July and August. On that basis, the association said summer employment will rise to about 12,613,700 jobs from 12,163,700 in March, a 3.7% seasonal increase. The association’s 2026 State of the Industry report also projected just 1.3% real sales growth, underscoring why operators are leaning on summer staffing even without a strong growth backdrop.

The hiring pool is still dominated by the same workers restaurant managers have long relied on for peak season shifts: teenagers, college students, teachers and retirees. The National Restaurant Association said the outlook is being helped by a stronger return to the labor force from teenagers and young adults, a rebound that has eased some of the hiring pressure operators faced earlier in the recovery.

The employment picture inside the industry is mixed. As of May 2026, eating-and-drinking-place employment was nearly 153,000 jobs, or 1.2%, above February 2020 levels. But fullservice restaurant employment was still 187,000 jobs, or 3.3%, below pre-pandemic levels as of April 2026, a gap that keeps pressure on restaurants that depend on table service, tipping income and thin margins to cover busy summer shifts.

That makes this summer’s hiring forecast look less like a broad expansion boom and more like a short-term staffing surge designed to protect service levels when dining rooms and patios fill up. The association said 2024 was the second consecutive summer with at least 525,000 seasonal jobs, the first time on record that level was reached in back-to-back summers, but the latest forecast points to a cooler pace as restaurants balance demand, labor availability and costs.