Brazil coffee crop seen rebounding 11.5% in 2026/27 survey
Brazil’s coffee crop was projected to jump 11.5% to 71.4 million bags, a rebound that could cool prices but not erase supply anxiety.
Brazil’s coffee crop was headed for a sharp rebound, with a new survey putting the 2026/27 harvest at 71.4 million 60-kilogram bags, up 11.5% from the prior season. That was the biggest number in the Coffee Trading Academy’s series and it came from a broad sample of 758 farmers across all producing regions, which gives the forecast more weight than a narrow regional call.
The split mattered just as much as the headline total. Arabica was seen at 47.9 million bags, up 13.5%, while robusta was projected at 23.5 million bags, up 7.6%. Farmers also reported a 2.97% increase in acreage, and 63.5% said off-season rainfall had a major positive effect. Fertilizer use rose modestly too, a sign growers were still investing in the crop even with input costs elevated.
The new estimate was also the third revision in the academy’s 2026/27 series. It was above the 69 million bags projected in November 2025, but below the initial July 2025 estimate of 73.7 million. That drift tells its own story: Brazil’s outlook improved as more field information came in, but it did not keep moving in a straight line.
For traders and roasters, the bigger question was whether 71.4 million bags was enough to change the tone of the market. Brazil’s current crop has been tight by recent standards. The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast 2025/26 production at 65 million bags, with arabica at 40.9 million and robusta and conilon at 24.1 million. StoneX later estimated the 2025/26 crop at 62.3 million bags, including 36.5 million bags of arabica and a record 25.8 million bags of robusta and conilon, after hot, dry weather hit flowering and early development at the end of 2024.
That is why the 2026/27 rebound matters. StoneX said global coffee stocks fell by more than 22 million bags between 2021 and 2024, and that a stronger Brazilian crop could help start rebuilding them. Market prices have already reacted to the idea of a larger harvest, and other forecasts were even higher, with StoneX at 75.3 million bags, Marex at 75.9 million and Sucafina at 75.4 million. The CTA survey was bullish, but not an outlier.
The message for the coffee market was mixed but useful: Brazil looked set for a better year, and that could ease some of the supply panic that has hung over green buying. It was not, though, a clean reset. A bigger crop can soften the squeeze, but until weather stays friendly and the harvest is actually in, traders and roasters still have good reason to keep some caution in their bids.
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