Germany anticipates U.S. troop withdrawal as Spain, Italy could follow

The Pentagon’s plan to pull about 5,000 U.S. troops out of Germany is more than a personnel shift. It is a signal to NATO allies that America’s military posture in Europe may be entering a new phase, with Germany first in line and Italy and Spain now watching for what comes next.

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius called the withdrawal “anticipated,” and said the continued U.S. presence in Germany serves both countries’ interests. NATO said it was assessing the details. Even after the reduction, more than 30,000 U.S. troops would remain in Germany, which still hosts the largest U.S. military presence in Europe, with 36,436 active-duty personnel as of Dec. 31, 2025.

President Donald Trump said the United States could reduce its troop presence in Germany “a lot further” than the 5,000 already announced, and he suggested Italy and Spain could face cuts as well. That language has sharpened concern across Europe that the move is not just cost-cutting, but part of a broader rewrite of American security commitments. Trump has also tied the issue to his dispute with European allies over the Iran war, including criticism from German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.

The strategic stakes differ by country. Germany is the central hub for U.S. forces in Europe and the key test case for alliance credibility. Italy hosts 12,662 U.S. active-duty personnel, including the Navy’s European headquarters in Naples, giving it a role that is smaller than Germany’s but still deeply embedded in U.S. operations. Spain, by contrast, had 3,814 U.S. active-duty personnel as of Dec. 31, 2025, making it a smaller and potentially easier target for cuts, but also a symbolic one for allies worried about whether Washington is redrawing its European map by pressure rather than strategy.

Congress could still block a deeper pullback. Reporting on the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act says lawmakers inserted language that would bar the Pentagon from reducing U.S. troop levels in Europe below 76,000 for more than 45 days unless the secretary of defense certifies consultation with NATO allies and that the move serves U.S. national security interests. That matters because the Trump administration already tried this before. In July 2020, Trump ordered 12,000 troops removed from Germany, but Congress pushed back and the Pentagon never completed the withdrawal.

This latest drawdown, expected to unfold over six to 12 months, now looks less like a one-off announcement than another chapter in a long fight over whether the United States is trimming a burden or thinning the deterrent that has anchored Europe for decades.