RAC warns petrol could hit 160p as Iran war drives prices higher

Rising petrol prices are hitting household budgets first, and the latest jump leaves commuters, small businesses and rural drivers with the least room to absorb the shock. RAC said average UK unleaded reached 158.52p a litre on 19 May 2026, a new Iran war high, and warned it could climb to at least 160p in the coming weeks unless oil prices see a dramatic and sustained fall. Crude has stayed above $100 a barrel since late April, keeping pressure on forecourt prices across Great Britain.

Diesel has moved in the opposite direction for now, but RAC said the relief is limited. The average diesel price has fallen by nearly 6p to 185.92p a litre, its lowest level since the start of the previous month, although the motoring group said diesel should be cheaper still and urged retailers to pass on wholesale savings more quickly. RAC Fuel Watch, which tracks wholesale and pump prices daily across major UK supermarkets and other forecourts, says its monitoring is intended to keep that pressure on when market costs fall.

The latest move comes after a sharp run-up in prices through March and April. On 6 March, RAC said petrol averaged 136.53p a litre and diesel 148.35p. By 23 March, unleaded had climbed to 147.19p and diesel to 171.17p. The group had already warned in March that further forecourt rises were likely if oil stayed high, and the latest figures show how quickly overseas conflict can feed through to family spending, delivery costs and the price of running a van or a taxi.

There may be some relief on taxes. RAC said the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, was thought likely to scrap a planned 1p fuel duty rise in September 2026. The current fuel duty rate stands at 52.95p a litre, and the government’s 5p cut, first introduced in March 2022, is due to remain until the end of August 2026. Main duty rates are still scheduled to rise in stages, by 1p on 1 September 2026, 2p on 1 December 2026 and another 2p on 1 March 2027.

Even so, petrol is already well below the summer 2022 record of 191.5p a litre, reached on 3 July 2022, and diesel remains below its peak of 199.09p on 25 June 2022. The danger for drivers is that the current Iran war keeps crude elevated long enough for forecourt prices to keep climbing before those duty changes even arrive.