Stelson sets up rematch against Perry in competitive Pennsylvania district

Scott Perry’s 5,133-vote win over Janelle Stelson in 2024 was narrow enough to invite a bigger question: was it a near miss for Democrats, or proof that Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District has already shifted into true battleground territory?

Perry edged Stelson 50.63% to 49.37% in the Nov. 5, 2024 general election, and the Associated Press did not call the race until Nov. 7, after counting stretched for more than a day. The result underscored how little room there is left for either party in a district that now includes all of Dauphin County and parts of Cumberland and York counties, anchored by Harrisburg and York.

The shape of the seat changed after court-ordered redistricting in 2018 pushed Perry into a more competitive south-central Pennsylvania district. That remap turned what had once been a safer Republican seat into one that is now only mildly GOP-leaning. Perry has held the district since 2019, after first representing the earlier version of the seat, and he has brought to it a national profile as a former House Freedom Caucus chair and a retired brigadier general in the Pennsylvania Army National Guard.

The numbers suggest the district is not uniformly red, even if Perry still has the advantage. In 2022, he defeated Democrat Shamaine Daniels 53.8% to 46.2%, yet Democrat Josh Shapiro carried the same district by 12 points in the gubernatorial race on that ballot. That split-ticket behavior is the clearest evidence that the electorate remains movable, especially among voters in the Harrisburg and York corridors who are willing to back Perry at the top of the ticket but cross over for Democrats in statewide races.

That is the terrain Stelson must use to make a second campaign more than a rerun. Stelson, a former WGAL anchor who also worked at other Pennsylvania stations, won the Democratic nomination again in 2026 and has tried to center the race on affordability, health-care costs and other kitchen-table pressures. Her campaign reported raising more than $2.1 million in the first quarter of 2026, a sign that Democrats see the district as one of Pennsylvania’s best pickup opportunities.

For Stelson, the path back is narrow but real. She cannot rely on a generic anti-Perry message; she has to win over the voters who have already shown they will split their ballots, while convincing enough suburban and exurban conservatives that Perry’s Washington brand no longer fits Central Pennsylvania. If 2024 was not the beginning of a realignment, it was close enough to make the rematch one of the state’s most important tests in 2026.