Trump warns gas prices may stay high through midterms, fueling GOP concern

Donald Trump’s warning that oil and gasoline prices could still be “the same” or “a little bit higher” by the November midterms sharpened a political problem for Republicans already trying to sell voters on relief at the pump. The president’s unusually cautious tone, delivered on Fox News on Sunday, came as his party faced fresh anxiety that energy costs could undercut its broader cost-of-living message.

The warning landed against a volatile backdrop in the oil market. The conflict between the United States and Iran, along with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has pushed energy prices sharply higher at exactly the moment Trump is telling voters to expect improvement. Roughly 20% of global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, making any disruption there a direct threat to gasoline supplies and to the political argument that Republicans can keep household costs in check.

The inflation numbers have only made the pressure more visible. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.9% in March, the largest monthly jump since 2022, while annual inflation accelerated to 3.3%. Gasoline prices climbed 21.2% from February to March, and fuel oil rose 31% over the same stretch. Analysts say the shock is likely to spread into transportation, travel, food and services even if the fighting eases.

Trump’s remarks followed failed in-person peace talks, and they came after his administration had been publicly projecting relief. That mixed message is now giving Republicans little room to maneuver. The U.S. Energy Information Administration released its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook on April 7, adding the official forecasting backdrop for a market already rattled by the conflict.

Inside the party, the concern is not theoretical. One person close to the White House said, “This war in Iran almost cements the fact that we lose the midterms in November — the Senate and House.” Republican strategist Barrett Marson was even blunter: “Time is not on the president’s side when it comes to the November election.”

The anxiety is already shaping campaign tactics in swing districts. In central Pennsylvania, Scott Perry has been pushed to address rising energy prices as Democrats tie Trump to the cost spike. Janelle Stelson, Perry’s Democratic challenger, has been leaning into the issue at a gas-station event, arguing that families paying “$4 or more” to fill their tanks feel the pain immediately.

That is the political danger for Trump and Republicans: if gas stays high through November, the White House’s promise of economic relief risks colliding with the one price voters notice every week.