Danone Q1 growth holds as Middle East conflict hits logistics costs

Danone’s first quarter looked sturdy on the surface, but the numbers now read like a stress test for whether protein demand can outrun geopolitical volatility. The company posted sales of €6.708 billion, up 2.7% like-for-like, with growth built on 1.5% volume/mix and 1.2% pricing. Yet Antoine de Saint-Affrique said the Middle East conflict was disrupting logistics and distribution flows in a region that accounts for about 2% to 3% of Danone sales, while infant milk recalls in EMEA also weighed on the start of the year.

That matters because Danone’s portfolio is leaning harder than ever on protein-led categories. In its Q1 materials, the company said continued strength in high protein is driving Essential Dairy and Plant Based growth across regions, and Saint-Affrique pointed to winning platforms in dairy, especially high protein, skyr and kefir. Those are the kinds of products that tend to command better consumer loyalty and, in many cases, more room to hold price than standard dairy lines when freight or input costs move against the business.

The quarter also showed that the demand story has not broken. Essential Dairy and Plant Based, Specialized Nutrition and Waters all advanced, and Danone kept its full-year 2026 guidance for like-for-like sales growth of 3% to 5%, alongside recurring operating income growing faster than sales. That is an important signal for investors watching the company’s ability to absorb shocks from currency swings, transport bottlenecks and product recalls without losing momentum in the core business.

Danone’s 2025 results suggest this is not a one-off protein pop. The company delivered 4.5% like-for-like sales growth for the year and said its high-protein portfolio posted continued double-digit growth. In the United States, Danone U.S. has been adding capacity where the category is strongest, including a multimillion-dollar expansion of the Minster, Ohio, yogurt plant that adds about 48,000 square feet, a new production line and roughly 30 jobs. Danone North America also launched Oikos Fusion, a cultured dairy drink aimed at muscle support during weight loss, and Silk Protein Milk with 13 grams of complete protein.

The pattern is clear. High-protein dairy, skyr, kefir and medical nutrition still look like Danone’s most resilient pricing platforms. More standardized, logistics-heavy lines are more exposed when conflict pushes up freight and distribution costs, especially in a region with only a small share of sales but enough operational weight to disrupt flow. Danone is still growing, but this quarter showed that protein demand alone does not cancel out geopolitics.