USDA projects stronger pork and poultry, tighter beef supply in 2026
USDA sees total protein output rising in 2026, but beef staying tight as pork and poultry take more of the load.
USDA’s latest outlook points to a protein market that is still expanding, but not evenly. Total U.S. red meat and poultry production was forecast at 108.4 billion pounds in 2026, up 1% from 107.1 billion pounds in 2025, with the gains driven by stronger pork and poultry output even as beef remains the weak link.
That split matters well beyond the cattle complex. USDA trimmed its 2026 beef production outlook to 25.790 billion pounds, down 20 million pounds from the prior month, and paired that with a forecast for slaughter steer prices averaging $241.66 per hundredweight, 8% above 2025. It also lifted projected beef imports to 5.790 billion pounds, up 6% from a year earlier, while beef exports were pegged at 2.365 billion pounds, down 8%. In practical terms, that leaves less room for affordable beef on retail shelves and more pressure on foodservice operators that build menus around it.
The supply math starts with the herd. USDA’s Jan. 30 cattle report estimated all cattle and calves in the United States at 86.2 million head as of Jan. 1, 2026, down from 86.5 million a year earlier. Beef cows totaled 27.6 million head, down 1%, marking the seventh straight annual decline in a cattle cycle that began in 2015 and peaked in 2019. Beef replacement heifers rose 1%, a sign that rebuilding may eventually begin, but the pipeline is still tight enough to keep cow slaughter headed lower than a year ago.
Pork is positioned to help fill some of that gap. USDA’s March 26 Hogs and Pigs report put the U.S. hog herd at 74.3 million head, with producers intending to farrow 2.86 million sows from March through May and 2.90 million from June through August. USDA forecast 2026 pork production at 27.975 billion pounds, 1.4% above 2025, and pork exports at 7.2 billion pounds, up 3.3%. That kind of supply growth gives retailers, distributors and manufacturers a steadier, lower-cost protein to lean on when beef gets expensive.
The broader message from USDA’s May 12 WASDE is that protein demand remains resilient even as the mix changes. It was the first WASDE to present calendar-year 2027 forecasts for U.S. livestock, poultry and dairy products, underscoring how far the industry has to look ahead as it plans pricing, formulation and menu strategy. With beef constrained and pork and poultry better supplied, the winners are likely to be the proteins that can deliver consistent volume at a lower cost per serving.
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