New U.S. tariff probe could pressure Big Lots prices and supplies

Big Lots could see the first real effects of the new tariff probe in the place shoppers notice last and employees feel first: tighter assortments, delayed promotions and prices that stop looking like bargains. The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative opened four days of hearings on May 5 at the U.S. International Trade Commission in Washington, D.C., with testimony from nearly 150 representatives scheduled through May 8 and a transcript to be posted afterward.

The probe is aimed at 16 trading partners, including China, the European Union, Japan, South Korea, Mexico and Vietnam, as well as Bangladesh, Cambodia, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Norway, Singapore, Switzerland, Taiwan and Thailand. USTR said it is examining whether structural excess capacity in manufacturing is creating overproduction, persistent trade surpluses and underused capacity that burden U.S. commerce. Trade watchers expect the investigations to be used as a path toward new import duties if the administration wants to rebuild tariff leverage after the Supreme Court struck down earlier global tariffs.

For Big Lots, that matters because the chain still depends on a sourcing model built around cheap, flexible merchandise. In March 2024, the company said bargain products made up nearly 60% of fourth-quarter sales, with a goal of reaching 75%. It also said it was sourcing from over-inventoried and distressed retailers and vendors, plus factory-direct partners in the U.S. and overseas.

That mix leaves the company exposed when the cost of imported goods moves. The pressure would likely show up first in the kinds of items Big Lots leans on to make the store feel like a treasure hunt: closeout toys, low-cost household goods and other fast-turn imports that have to land cheaply enough to support aggressive markdowns. The company’s purchase of the entire Hearthsong toy inventory, valued at more than $22 million, and its plan to sell it at 50% to 70% below original retail prices showed how much the bargain strategy depends on low acquisition costs.

Variety Wholesalers, which acquired 219 Big Lots stores out of bankruptcy, began the first wave of reopenings on April 10, 2025, and said 132 stores would reopen in May 2025. That reset makes stable sourcing even more important. When trade policy gets unsettled, the damage rarely arrives as a headline first. It shows up later, in pack-size changes, canceled promotions and customers wondering why the deal they expected is suddenly gone.