Tariff refunds may ease Big Lots sourcing pressure, not prices overnight

Tariff refunds may reach importers quickly on paper, but Big Lots workers and shoppers are far more likely to see a lag in the aisle than at the customs counter. U.S. Customs and Border Protection said the first electronic refunds from tariffs ruled illegal by the Supreme Court could begin as soon as May 12, with as much as $166 billion in collections subject to repayment, and the agency has set up a new status process so claimants can track the money.

That timing matters for Big Lots because the company still runs on a value model built around closeouts, changing assortments and tight buying decisions. When tariff costs have already been baked into purchase orders, refunds do not unwind the whole chain at once. Inventory was ordered, shipped and priced before the legal ground shifted, which means any benefit has to work its way through existing stock, vendor negotiations and the next round of buys before it reaches shelf tags.

Big Lots has spent the last two years in upheaval. The company filed voluntary Chapter 11 on September 9, 2024, then its bankruptcy case was converted to Chapter 7 effective November 10, 2025, with Alfred T. Giuliano appointed trustee. Gordon Brothers said it completed the purchase of Big Lots in January 2025, describing the deal as a going-concern sale that preserved the brand, kept hundreds of stores open and prevented thousands of layoffs. Gordon Brothers also said it had provided a $200 million delayed-draw term loan and a $150 million debtor-in-possession term loan during the restructuring. Variety Wholesalers was expected to acquire at least 200 stores to operate under the Big Lots name.

That backdrop makes tariff relief more about sourcing pressure than instant pricing relief. The Federal Reserve has said the 2018-2019 U.S.-China tariff hikes pushed U.S. imports away from China and toward other trading partners, though indirect reliance on China may have fallen less than direct trade flows implied. Yale Budget Lab estimated that the 2025 tariffs had raised $214.7 billion in inflation-adjusted customs revenue above the 2022-2024 average by February 2026, and that about $165 billion in unlawfully collected duties could be refunded after the Supreme Court decision. It also said imported PCE core goods and durable goods prices were both up 1.5% through January 2026, a reminder that higher costs tend to linger after the policy headlines fade.

For Big Lots, that means any refund flow could help with supplier liquidity and future buying power, but it will not reset the chain overnight. Stores will work through the product already on hand first, and shoppers should expect the price effect, if it comes, to arrive unevenly rather than all at once.