Goldman Sachs faces trading test as Iran conflict clouds dealmaking

Goldman Sachs headed into its first-quarter 2026 earnings morning with a test that goes straight to the firm’s core franchises: can trading keep carrying the quarter while dealmaking holds up? Analysts tracked by LSEG expected earnings per share of $16.49 on revenue of $16.97 billion, with fixed income trading revenue at $4.92 billion, equities trading revenue at $4.91 billion and investment-banking fees at $2.5 billion. The call was set for 9:30 a.m. ET, and the numbers would tell bankers, traders and their managers whether the bump from turbulent markets was becoming a durable run or just another geopolitical spike.

The pressure point was the Iran conflict, which has already complicated deal timing across Wall Street. A war that unsettles corporate boards can slow mergers and capital markets work, but it can also push clients back into rates, currencies and commodities trading, the kind of flow that feeds Goldman’s sales, derivatives and risk desks. CNBC also highlighted institutional clients repositioning around AI-led disruption, another source of activity that could boost market-making even if M&A sentiment stayed uneven.

Goldman’s own messaging has leaned on that mix. Its 2025 annual report said Global Banking & Markets was positioned to capitalize on an upswing in strategic activity and strong client flows across FICC and equities, while also benefiting from a more balanced regulatory regime. In its fourth-quarter 2025 shareholder letter, the firm said it was well positioned to exceed return targets in the near term and create long-term value. For employees, that language matters because trading and advisory revenue still shape bonus pools, hiring plans and the room senior leaders have to reward revenue producers.

The comparison point from a year earlier showed how much was at stake. In the first quarter of 2025, Goldman reported net revenues of $15.06 billion, net earnings of $4.74 billion and diluted EPS of $14.12. Within Global Banking & Markets, investment-banking fees were $1.914 billion, FICC revenue was $4.404 billion and equities revenue was $4.192 billion. The 2026 consensus implied a materially stronger quarter, especially in trading and advisory, and a chance for David Solomon, John Waldron and Denis Coleman to show that Goldman’s lean into core Wall Street businesses was still paying off. Goldman’s investor-relations page listed the shares at $863.04 and a dividend yield of 2.09% as of April 2, and the firm also had its annual meeting of shareholders set for April 29, adding another date that kept attention on whether the latest volatility surge would turn into lasting momentum.