Goldman Sachs upgrades insurers, cuts energy targets in sector rotation

Goldman Sachs analysts moved in opposite directions on two of the market’s most watched sectors, upgrading Chubb, American International Group and State Street while cutting price targets on ConocoPhillips and Devon Energy. The split call is less a routine ratings update than a clearer sector bet: Goldman is leaning into insurers and financials, and stepping back from energy at the same time.

The insurer view fits a line Goldman drew in March, when it said commercial insurers were best positioned to benefit from artificial intelligence in the property-and-casualty business. AIG and Chubb were singled out because their businesses are concentrated in multinational and commercial lines, where underwriting, servicing and risk selection are more data-heavy and more exposed to operating leverage than in more retail-facing insurance businesses. For Goldman’s coverage teams, that kind of call tends to steer client conversations toward earnings durability and capital deployment rather than a pure macro trade.

Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s 15th annual Global Insurance Survey, released in New York on March 25, 2026, adds more fuel to that stance. In the survey, 88% of insurers expected the S&P 500 Index to rise in 2026, and 62% planned to increase allocations to private assets this year. The same survey found respondents still constructive despite geopolitical tensions, with the majority expecting modest declines in U.S. interest rates. That mix points to an industry that still sees room for investment income, portfolio returns and capital return, even if rates ease a bit.

Energy looks much less forgiving in Goldman’s latest framing. The bank has also published 2026 commentary warning about demand destruction in energy markets, and ConocoPhillips said in February that it planned $1 billion in cost cuts in 2026 after weaker oil prices pressured results. Devon was also among the names hit by lower targets, underscoring how quickly earnings in the sector can swing with commodity prices. Reuters reported last year that weak prices could force output cuts across the oil industry, a reminder that the pressure on producers has been building.

The bigger message is where Goldman expects investor attention to migrate next: toward businesses with more visible capital return, more resilient earnings and less dependence on one commodity price. That favors insurers and selected financials, while energy names are left to prove they can grow through a weaker price backdrop.