PwC says back-to-school shoppers are spending more, using AI more

PwC says families expect to spend an average of $922 on back-to-school shopping this year, and 47 percent of parents plan to spend more than they did last year. The bigger change for Target stores is how those purchases are being shaped: 61 percent of parents plan to let children add items directly to online carts, and 73 percent expect to use AI somewhere in the shopping journey.

That means more guests will walk in already armed with price checks, saved lists and opinions formed on a phone. PwC says the share of shopping done in stores is expected to slip to 70 percent from 79 percent last year, which points to a trip that starts online, moves into the store and often finishes back on a screen. For team members on the sales floor, the conversation is likely to be less about discovery and more about proof, with shoppers asking why one backpack, binder or sneaker is worth more than another and what value really means at each price point.

The timing is already early. The National Retail Federation said about one-third of back-to-school shoppers had started browsing and buying by early June, the highest level since it began asking the question in 2018, and 44 percent had already received school lists. In 2025, the trade group said 67 percent had begun purchasing by early July, up from 55 percent in 2024, and half of families said they were shopping earlier because they worried prices would rise because of tariffs. NRF said the average planned spend for elementary through high school families was $858.07 last year.

Target is leaning into that more cautious, more digital shopper. On June 24, the company said more than half of its back-to-school and back-to-college assortment was new this year, with thousands of exclusive items across apparel, school supplies and dorm decor. The retailer also highlighted partnerships with LoveShackFancy, Hollister and Overtime, plus Target Circle offers that included 20 percent off for teachers and college students. Target Circle Deal Days ran from June 23 through June 26 with up to 45 percent off back-to-school and college essentials.

For store leaders, the mix matters as much as the markdowns. Target said in March it planned an incremental $2 billion of investment in 2026, including more than $1 billion in capital expenditures and $1 billion in operating investments, with money going toward floor plan changes, displays, payroll, training, assortments and technology, including AI. The company said it would make more changes inside stores than any year in the last decade.

That is the backdrop for back-to-school on Target’s front lines: shoppers who are spending more but scrutinizing more, children who are helping decide what goes in the basket, and AI tools that are quietly changing what families think counts as a good deal.