Target prepares for early back-to-school shopping surge, NRF says
One-third of back-to-school shoppers were already browsing by early June, forcing Target stores to reset the calendar on staffing, replenishment and guest traffic.
About one-third of shoppers had already started browsing and buying by early June, the highest level since the National Retail Federation began asking the question in 2018, and 44% had already received school lists, up from 38% last year.
School supplies, dorm goods and apparel cannot sit in the back room waiting for a late-July spike if guests are already shopping in June and early July. Teams have to keep seasonal sets full, signage current and high-demand items easy to find across more weeks, not just one peak weekend. It also raises the pressure on replenishment and guest service because the season is stretching out, with families making multiple trips instead of one big run.
Gen Z and Millennials posted the biggest jump in early back-to-school shopping this year. Those shoppers are often the ones moving between style-driven purchases, value hunting and faster, list-based trips. A guest arriving with a school list is usually looking for speed, certainty and price clarity, not browsing time.
On June 24, Target said more than 50% of its back-to-school and back-to-college assortment is new this year, with thousands of exclusive items across apparel, school supplies, dorm decor and more. Cara Sylvester, Target’s executive vice president and chief merchandising officer, said back-to-school and back-to-college are big moments for families and that shopping for them should be “inspiring and joyful.”
The Overtime collection started online and in select stores June 14 and goes nationwide July 5, with prices starting at $24.99. The Hollister Collection at Target begins June 28, LoveShackFancy x Target launches July 5 and most of that line is under $25, and Owala x Cat & Jack also launches July 5 with many items priced between $3 and $25. Target Circle Deal Days ran June 23 through June 26, with up to 45% off back-to-school and college essentials and early access for Target Circle 360 members starting June 22.
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National Retail Federation data from July 2025 show that 67% of back-to-school shoppers had already started purchasing by early July, up from 55% in 2024, and 51% said they were shopping earlier because they expected prices to rise because of tariffs. It also found that 84% still had at least half of their shopping left to do.
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